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许少民:Is US alliance still vital to Australia?

  201758日,我中心访问学者许少民博士在Global Times 上发表文章Is US alliance still vital to Australia?,全文如下

The first meeting between US President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minster Malcolm Turnbull in New York took place on Thursday, marking the 75th anniversary of the Battle of the Coral Sea during WWII.

The meeting between Trump and Turnbull is, by and large, symbolic, but effectively played down the testy phone call in January over a crucial refugee deal. Although both Trump and Turnbull claimed the controversial phone call was exaggerated by the media, such a public dressing-down and dismissal shocked the Australian side, further suggesting that the "Trump factor" may have a negative impact on the US-Australian alliance.
This symbolic meeting might have significant implications for both Trump and Turnbull. Trump's infamously unpredictable foreign policy driven by a very personalistic version seems to be increasingly trumped by his realization that "American first" does not mean the world's only superpower can go it alone. That is why Trump is increasingly engaging with many of America's long-established strategic allies that he initially despised. The meeting with Turnbull seems to further improve Trump's image as a rational and reliable US president in dealing with his counterparts now and the future.
The one-on-one meeting with Trump might also help Turnbull in Australia. Australia's political and strategic elites have developed an overarching idea that the country's security is ultimately reliant on the US. As a result, the US-Australian alliance has long been enthusiastically embraced by not only the Australian elites but also the public. It is, thus, hardly surprising to see Australian elites' willingness to curry favor with, and even relentlessly show its loyalty to its "great and powerful friend," as described by former Australian prime minister Robert Menzies. 
The US-Australian alliance is too strategically important to be tarnished, whether by default or by design. Arguably, maintaining a solid US-Australian alliance has become an indispensable part of statecraft for Australia's leaders. Australian prime ministers in post-WWII era are generally reluctant to undermine this "special relationship" between Australia and the US under their leadership. Turnbull is not an exception in this regard. The last-minute meeting with Trump is a timely campaign tactic for Turnbull to reinforce the idea that the US-Australian alliance remains a bedrock or foundation of Australia's national security and prosperity. Trump's praise for Turnbull and the longstanding alliance might help improve his image in Australia. However, is the US-Australian alliance really as solid as the Australian side assumes? Given that both sides have repeatedly stressed the significance of this strategic alliance as a foundation of Australia's security, why are Australians so sensitive about such an acrimonious phone call? And why was Turnbull so "delighted" to reaffirm this alliance for the sake of Australian "national interests?"
Whatever the content, a phone call between Trump and Turnbull arguably cannot on its own undermine the foundation of the US-Australian alliance. After all, no one will expect the entire US-Australian relationship to boil down to the personal interactions between two leaders. Put another way, a solid alliance by design transcends personality. It is rare to see that the longstanding US-Australian alliance, almost 60 years old, now has heavily rested on whether the two leaders "had good words."
The testy phone call and the recent meeting between Trump and Turnbull have shed light on Australia's rising concern about the resilience of the US-Australian alliance in the future. Two options are available for Australian policymakers. The first option is to expand its strategic networks in the Asia-Pacific region, and even around the world, to significantly reduce its reliance on the US. Strengthening the strategic relationship with China does not seem to be an impossible mission. Having said that, the Australians need to seriously consider the American response. And ironically, what role can a middle power like Australia play by losing its moorings to the US? Does Australia still matter if the US-Australian alliance ends in divorce? By contrast, the other option requires Australia to continue shoring up its alliance with the US. There lies a possibility that the American agenda may be increasingly prioritized by the Australian government in the future in order to show the US its unquestioning loyalty. The junior alliance partner, as a result, may be taken for granted or even publicly abused at times with little fear of "blowback" as far as the US is concerned. The Turnbull government seems to be subscribing to this longstanding option.
So much so that Australia's dilemma in such a special relationship with the US may be aggravated. Is Australia still a "lucky country" in addressing this dilemma in the future? Time will tell.
The author is a visiting scholar to the Center for Oceania Studies, Sun Yat-sen University and he was just granted a PhD degree by The University of Western Australia. Prof. Mark Beeson (The University of Western Australia), Prof. David Denemark (The University of Western Australia) and Dr. Jeffrey Wilson (Murdoch University) contributed to the article.
 
 

原文见:http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1045821.shtml